Indonesia to target carbon neutrality by 2060, a bit late
Indonesia’s carbon neutrality target suddenly came to the fore recently ahead of the climate summit hosted by United States President Joe Biden last week. Many expected President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to announce it during the summit, but he did not even touch on the subject in his speech. This indicated that relevant government agencies had not come to an agreement about the targets put on the table: 2045, 2050, 2060 or 2070. Indications show that it is likely to be 2060.
According to the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), if Indonesia takes the faster route of going carbon neutral by 2050 or even 2045, the country’s greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak by 2027 and then go down continuously, which means that Indonesia should decarbonize its economy after 2027 by reducing the use of fossil fuels in transportation and electricity, including the use of coal in power generation. If Indonesia wants to take the slower route of carbon neutrality by 2060 or 2070, greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak by 2033 or 2034 respectively1.
Different ministries are not yet in unison about the target. The Environment and Forestry Ministry – the leading ministry in the drive – proposed a target date of 2070, which immediately drew criticism from various green activists. According to our sources, even Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Panjaitan reprimanded the environment and forestry minister for the target, saying it would make Indonesia a laughingstock. Luhut himself proposed a target of 20602.
Luhut believed that Indonesia could achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 or even earlier, considering the government’s drive to bring the country into the global electric vehicles (EV) supply chain. With the country holding a massive 25 percent of the world’s nickel reserves, a key raw material in producing EV lithium-ion batteries, Indonesia wants to be one of the world’s EV battery production centers3. Luhut said Indonesia would also attract investment in EV production and has set a target for Indonesia to produce 2 million EVs by 20254.
The most challenging issue for Indonesia would be to reduce the portion of its coal-based power production and increase the use of new and renewable energy in power generation. Currently, coal-fired power plants dominate Indonesia’s electricity generation with a share of around 50 percent, while new and renewable energy only accounts for 7.38 percent5.
Many activists and even former Cabinet ministers, including former environment minister Emil Salim and former deputy foreign minister Dino Patti Djalal asked Indonesia to be bolder in its drive to achieve carbon neutrality, at least targeting carbon neutrality by 2050, following the steps of Argentina and Mexico, considering Indonesia is an archipelagic country. Any failure to restrain global warming would negatively affect people living in Indonesia’s lowlands and shores6.
Most developed countries and some emerging countries have taken a faster route of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Argentina and Mexico. Germany even made a bolder move by banning combustion-engine vehicles from its streets by 2030. China, as one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, however, put the target at 20607.
Achieving carbon neutrality for a country means that its carbon dioxide output has a net neutral impact on the environment, and it can help stem the effects of climate change. It could be achieved by adding more new and renewable energy into power generation and switching to electric vehicles. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide increase average temperatures worldwide, which in turn contributes to rising sea levels, changing weather patterns and other factors associated with climate change.
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for holding the ongoing rise in global average temperature to “well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”, while “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius”. The 0.5 degrees Celsius does not sound like much, but it could expose tens of millions more people worldwide to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding as a result of rising sea water8.
According to a 2016 European Geosciences Union study, at 1.5 degrees Celsius, tropical coral reefs stand a chance of adapting and reversing a portion of their die-off in the last half of the century. But at 2 degrees Celsius, the chance of recovery vanishes. Tropical corals are virtually wiped out by the year 21009.
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