President Prabowo Subianto announced that his administration aims to achieve a fully new and renewable energy (NRE) mix within the next 10 years as part of his energy sovereignty agenda. This would also require Indonesia to accelerate its timeline for net-zero emissions (NZE), surpassing the current global target of 2060. However, the ambitious goals appear unrealistic given Indonesia's ongoing struggles with its energy transition and competing policy priorities.

Prabowo unveiled the NRE target on Aug. 15, 2025, during the launch of the 2026 state budget draft and its financial note. The draft allocates Rp 402.4 trillion (US$24.61 billion) for energy security. The president underscores the role of NRE in the strengthening the country's energy security, claiming that Indonesia could achieve NZE faster than 2060. Yet most of the energy security budget—Rp 210.1 trillion—will go to subsidies for oil fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and electricity. Only Rp 37.5 trillion is directly earmarked for NRE development.

According to the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Indonesia's 3,700 GW of NRE potential is theoretically more than enough to achieve both the NRE and NZE goals, as only 450 GW would be required by 2060. But fossil fuels continue to dominate Indonesia's energy mix, reinforced by the operation of many relatively new coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Furthermore, local administrations have limited authority to support NRE beyond geothermal and biofuel development under Law No. 23/2014 on Regional Governments.

Complicating matters further, state-owned electricity company PLN's 2025–2034 Electricity Procurement Business Plan (RUPTL) undermines the 100 percent NRE goal. While the RUPTL targets 42.6 GW of NRE capacity by 2034, it also allows for 16.6 GW in new fossil fuel power plants. The plan pledges to halt CFPP construction by 2027 but still permits expansion of gas-fired power plants (GFPPs), reflecting an energy security focus that directly contradicts Prabowo's pledge. (See also: New RUPTL signals energy security prioritized over green transition)

The RUPTL expects 73 percent of total power plant investment—or Rp 1.6 quadrillion—to come from the private sector. Yet the current pace falls short: as of the first half of 2025, only 14.5 percent (15.2 GW) of the national energy mix is from NRE, well below the 23 percent target. The weak private sector participation can be attributed to high investment risks, low returns, elevated loan interest rates compared to countries such as Malaysia, and declining interest in solar following the end of Indonesia's net metering scheme.

The role of private investment is even more crucial as the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement threatens the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a key financing framework for Indonesia's transition. At the same time, Prabowo has set a target to achieve a balanced state budget by 2028, casting further doubt on whether the state can scale up its own contribution to NRE development.

For Indonesia to move closer to its ambitious goals, austerity measures must be avoided, and energy regulations need to be relaxed while remaining aligned with the constitutional mandate to provide energy. Even then, meeting the existing RUPTL targets will be challenging. Achieving a 100 percent NRE mix within a decade, while simultaneously pursuing other flagship programs, appears unattainable.